Giddyup Gallup

According to a Gallup poll this week, voters are on a learning curve when it comes to Obama. His name ID has risen from 53% in December to 77% today. So far, his favorability has remained positive, although his negatives have risen from 11% in December to 24% today. Obama's great appeal to voters is his youth and freshness. He is also seen as likable. Voters also cite his inexperience as his biggest weakness. Well more than 9 in 10 voters say Obama's race would not be a factor in their vote.

Both Obama and Clinton are competing for the black Democratic vote, a minor factor in early primary and caucus states such as New Hampshire and Iowa, but of significant importance in South Carolina and others. Best current estimates are that the two are roughly tied among black Democrats.

It's still early in the process. Poll results at this phase -- 10 months before the first primaries and caucuses and less than 20 months before the general election -- do not necessarily bear a strong relationship to the reality that unfolds in the election year itself. This has historically been true for the Democratic Party in particular. Bill Clinton, Michael Dukakis, Jimmy Carter, and George McGovern were all virtual unknowns who rose from obscurity to take their party's nomination.

Three-quarters of voters in March indicated that they did not yet have a good idea for whom they will vote next year. Half have not given it much thought. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll finds slightly fewer than 4 in 10 Americans saying they would like to see Gore run for president in 2008; the majority of Americans do not want to see him run.